The Social Analyst is a weekly column by Mashable Co-Editor Ben Parr, where he digs into social media trends and how they are affecting companies in the space.
It’s been five days since Apple introduced the iPad to the world, and everybody is still reacting to the announcement. Adobe is calling Apple out on the issue of no Flash on the iPad. The iPad has already sparked the Amazon vs. Apple ebook war. Countless people are writing reactionary pieces (including me). The iPad still hasn’t left Twitter’s trending topics.
I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen an unreleased device draw such ire and approval. The reaction to the Nexus One, the iPhone 3GS and Google Wave don’t even compare. Some people just hate the thing, while others (like Jim Cramer) believe it’ll be the biggest selling device in history.
My intent in this column is to cut through the crap and to answer two key questions:
1. Will the iPad be a commercial success?
2. Is the iPad good for computing and the web?
Will the iPad be a Commercial Success?
Let me answer the first question clearly, right now: Yes, it will be a commercial hit.
The iPad combines a lot of things people want in their computers: simplicity, speed, sexiness, portability, and a price that trumps many computers and almost all laptops. No, it doesn’t come with a camera, multitasking, Flash, or a USB port, but the vast majority of people don’t care about that. So long as they can play games, surf the web, play music, read books, and stick the iPad into a keyboard peripheral, they will get exactly what they need from the iPad.
That isn’t to say that techies won’t get utility out of the iPad, either: apps, speedy browsing, portability, iBooks, 3G access, and the Apple brand are more than enough to get gadget geeks to line up at 6 AM in front of an Apple store.
People Are Forgetting That This Is the First Version
The simple truth is that Apple’s tablet didn’t need a lot of features to sell millions. It really just needed the Apple brand and the beginnings of a great product to make it a hit.
Remember, this is the first edition of the iPad. A year may seem like a long time, but it really isn’t in the larger scheme of things. Releasing the iPad without more expensive parts like the camera gives Apple the chances to get market penetration via price while it tracks how people actually use their iPads.
You can bet that Apple will come out with a newer, sexier version of the iPad every year, just like it does for the iPhone. You can also bet that Apple will delight its previous doubters with features such as a front-facing camera and multitasking.
Year one is about product introduction, year two is about true market share infiltration. Missing features aren’t a problem: they’re a market strategy.
iPad: Is It Good for Computing and the Web?
One of the major complaints about technologists about the iPad has to be its “closed” system. I think Twitter’s Alex Payne sums it up best:
“That the iPad is a closed system is harder to forgive. One of the foremost complaints about the iPhone has been Apple’s iron fist when it comes to applications and the development direction of the platform. The iPad demonstrates that if Apple is listening to these complaints, they simply don’t care. This is why I say that the iPad is a cynical thing: Apple can’t – or won’t – conceive of a future for personal computing that is both elegant and open, usable and free.”
He goes on to explain that its closed system could signal the end of a “hacker era,” where the curious could play around with hardware and code as they pleased, leading to the experimentation that has led to many of technology’s greatest innovations.
So let’s get down to the big question: Is the iPad a good thing or bad thing for the future of technology, computing, and the web?
My answer: it’s a good thing, but we have to be careful.
Simplicity Brings Computing to the Masses
While most of us active in the tech and social media industries are adept and proficient users of PCs and Macs, most people simply aren’t. Multitasking isn’t something they like or want to do. In all honesty, they just want to access their email and access Facebook.
The iPad will bring more of the web to many more people. It’s very easy to click on an app and get your Facebook or to open up the browser and go to your friend’s blog every day. Many senior citizens and younger children would benefit from an iPad as their full-time computer. No blue screens of death, no pain with cords, no hardware incompatibilities.
Oh, and this is key: they won’t have to purchase an Internet connection or have Wi-Fi if they have a 3G iPad. For many people, a 3G connection will be more than sufficient for their browsing needs. This makes it cheaper and easier to own and operate.
For more technologically-savvy users, the iPad acts as an alternative computing device, giving them access to the web in another room or while they’re on the road. No, you won’t be able to blog as fast on an iPad, but it’s really just meant as a robust, handheld window to the web.
Closed Environments Aren’t Good, But We Have Choices
Let’s be clear: I do not like closed platforms. I think Android’s open platform is the future, not Apple’s closed iPhone App Store. As seed investor and Y Combinator founder Paul Graham noted last week, the App Store’s policies have hurt Apple’s relationship with developers and continues to be a “karma leak” for the company.
This is a free market though, and that means companies have the right to choose to build their platform in any way they want. At the same time, we as customers have the right to which devices we buy and use.
Apple wants to control the user experience at every level, and we can’t blame them: the experience between PCs varies wildly and is prone to errors, shutdowns, and frustrating load times. The iPad is a strong answer to these issues.
The iPad isn’t, nor will it ever be, a replacement for the computer, however. You can always choose to buy a PC instead of an iPad or to put down your iPad in favor of your laptop when you need to access an open platform. You can choose to buy an Android-based tablet if you want open apps, or you can just stick with your Nexus One.
Apple cannot and will not single-handedly make computing a closed environment. As long as people are curious and have a choice, advanced computing devices will thrive. Even if Apple created a Macbook based off the iPhone OS, people would still buy PCs in droves.
Choice is good for the web. Innovation is good for computing. And in the end, Apple’s iPad will make the web far more accessible, despite our gripes and concerns.
Tags: apple, Apple iPad, Apple Tablet, ipad, The Social
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